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2020年全球勘探趋势报告

01
作为2018年勘探投入增幅最大的商品,黄金在当年增加了7.566亿美元(增幅18%),但2019年则减少5.59亿美元(减幅12%)至42.9亿美元。

Gold has followed up 2018's largest commodity increase of US$756.6 million, or 18%, with a US$559 million, or 12%, decrease in 2019 to US$4.29 billion

黄金仍然是2019年勘探的首要目标,在全球钻孔的占比从2018年的58%增加到63%。这是自2016以来的最高水平。

Gold continued to be the top target in 2019, increasing its share of global drillholes to 63% from 58% in 2018. This is the highest level since 2016.

 

俄罗斯和中国仍然是勘查的首选国家,合计占总预算的56%。

Russia and China remained the top countries for exploration, accounting for a combined 56% of the total budget.

2019年澳大利亚项目的预算增长最多,几乎增加了2亿美元,增幅为15%。

Budgets for Australian projects increased the most, by almost US$200 million or 15%.

 

展望2020年,今年1月签署的中美第一阶段经贸协议中美经贸摩擦缓和,但相当规模的关税依然存在。虽然宏观经济担忧有所缓解,但2020年头几周发生的几起重大事件预示着今年将出现显著波动。美国和伊朗之间地缘政治紧张局势的急剧升温不太可能迅速缓解,而政治将在美国总统大选前成为焦点。此外,新冠肺炎疫情可能对全球产生重大影响,而且已经对全球市场造成冲击。

Looking to 2020, the "phase one" agreement signed in January created a pause in the trade war between the U.S. and China, but significant tariffs remain in place. While macroeconomic concerns have eased somewhat, several significant events in the first few weeks of 2020 forebode considerable volatility for the year. The sharp rise in geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran is unlikely to abate quickly, while politics will come to the fore ahead of the U.S. Presidential election. In addition, the emerging coronavirus epidemic could materially impact local or regional economies in China and other affected countries, and is already shaking global markets.

标准普尔全球市场情报公司(S&P Global Market Intelligence)发布的《世界勘探趋势报告》显示,有色金属全球勘查预算从2018年的101亿美元降至2019年的约98亿美元,中断了前两年勘查预算的连续复苏。

S&P Global Market Intelligence's 30th annual Corporate Exploration Strategies study found that the global exploration budget for nonferrous metals decreased to an estimated US$9.8 billion in 2019 from US$10.1 billion in 2018, interrupting a two-year recovery in budgets

大宗商品近期需求的持续不确定。当然,黄金是其中的特殊品类,它得益于当前的地缘政治形势。有鉴于此,标普全球预计2020年全球勘查预算将会持平,黄金的涨幅可能会被大多数其他大宗商品的疲软表现所抵消。

Persistent uncertainty about near-term demand for commodities remains a hindrance to the industry. The outlier in this, of course, is gold, which has benefited from the current geopolitical situation. With this in mind, we expect the global exploration budget to be flat in 2020, with gains for gold likely to be offset by weaker conditions for most other commodities.

 

尽管2020年前景不明朗,但由于缺乏项目链投资,未来几年一些基本金属大宗商品将面临市场缺口。除非集中努力开发新的绿地项目,否则本行业将面临挑战,难以满足哪怕中度预测的全球需求,特别是铜的需求。

Despite an uncertain 2020, the lack of pipeline investment is leading several base metals commodities toward market deficits in the next several years. Unless efforts focus on new greenfields discoveries, the industry will be challenged to meet even modest global demand forecasts, especially for copper.


02
黄金预算缩减幅度大

Gold budget has shrunk sharply

作为2018年勘探投入增幅最大的商品,黄金在当年增加了7.566亿美元(增幅18%),但2019年则减少5.59亿美元(减幅12%)至42.9亿美元。

Gold has followed up 2018's largest commodity increase of US$756.6 million, or 18%, with a US$559 million, or 12%, decrease in 2019 to US$4.29 billion

 

黄金勘探投入下降的部分原因是2018年和2019年初金价表现不佳,2018年8月下探1160美元/盎司。尽管价格在2019年至2020年期间强劲反弹,但上涨来得太晚,无法提振2019年的预算。

Part of the reason for this decline is the gold price, which underperformed in 2018 and at the start of 2019, with a low of US$1,160/oz in August 2018. While prices have rebounded strongly through 2019 and into 2020, the increase came much too late to aid 2019 budgets.

黄金价格下跌的第二个原因是2018年末和2019年初的并购活动,最显著的是巴里克(Barrick Randgold)和纽蒙特(Newmont Goldcorp)的交易。标普全球的数据表明,从历史上看,两家公司合并之后的勘查预算将低于合并前两家公司的预算之和。预算减少的主要原因是合并后的合理化措施,包括在撤资前减少对非核心资产的供资。仅这两起并购案就减去了2019年约1.03亿美元的潜在黄金勘查支出。

The second cause of gold's decrease is the merger and acquisition activity in late 2018 and early 2019, most notably the Barrick-Randgold and Newmont-Goldcorp transactions. Our data shows that historically when two companies combine, the exploration budget of the combined entity is less than the aggregate budget by the premerger pair of companies. The primary driver of this decrease is the rationalization process, which includes reducing funding of non-core assets prior to divestment. These two mergers alone removed about US$103 million of potential exploration spending for gold in 2019.

 

2019年全球勘查预算下行趋势中,基本金属总预算逆势而上,增加1.91亿美元至32.3亿美元,增幅6.3%。铜勘查预算分配量增加最多,增加了2.454亿美元。智利仍然是铜预算分配的主要国家,并且在矿区勘查方面出现显著增长,而美国和澳大利亚的铜预算也都同比增长。在美国,一些重大项目的晚期工作有所加速,而新发现的乐观情绪则推动了澳大利亚的草根项目预算分配。

The aggregate base metal budget bucked the slowdown in global exploration in 2019 with an increase of US$191 million, or 6.3%, to US$3.23 billion. Copper allocations increased the most, up US$245.4 million6. While Chile continued to be the primary country for copper allocations and had a significant increase for minesite exploration, both the U.S. and Australia posted year-over-year gains in copper budgets. In the U.S., late-stage work has ramped up at some significant projects, while optimism for new discoveries in Australia has boosted the country's grassroots allocations.


03
勘查活动反弹暂停

The rebound in exploration pauses

矿业2018年开局向好,但全球经济和政治状况恶化,矿业上升趋势于年底受阻,金属价格和股市支撑下行。尽管到2019年底市场状况有所改善,但地缘政治和宏观经济方面的担忧贯穿全年。这对勘查计划产生了直接影响,标普全球市场财智2019年对3300家公司的调查显示,全球有色金属总预算同比下降4%,至92.9亿美元。考虑到标普全球无法掌握的预算,预计2019年的预算总额为98亿美元,较2018年的101亿美元下降3%。

The mining industry began 2018 on a positive note, but rising global economic and political headwinds halted the upward trajectory late in the year, with metals prices and equity market support falling off. Although market conditions improved by the end of 2019, geopolitical and macroeconomic concerns persisted through the year. This had a direct impact on exploration planning, with S&P Global Market Intelligence's survey of 3,300 companies in 2019 reporting a 4% decrease year over year in global aggregate nonferrous budgets to US$9.29 billion. After accounting for budgets we could not obtain, the estimated budget total of US$9.8 billion in 2019 is 3% lower than US$10.1 billion in 2018.

 

2019年活跃勘查公司数量同比增长3%,达到1708家,成为2012年以来第二个出现同比增长的年份。许多过去几年处于休眠状态的公司在2018年纷纷重新启动,之后价格开始回落,融资变得更加困难。这导致平均勘查预算额和中位勘查预算额分别降至540万美元和110万美元。

The number of active explorers increased 3% year over year to 1,708 in 2019, making it only the second year since 2012 with an annual increase. Many companies that had been dormant for the past several years reactivated in 2018, before prices began to pull back and financings became harder to secure. This led to the average and median exploration budgets decreasing to US$5.4 million and US$1.1 million respectively.

正如标普全球每月的《行业监测》报告所述,自2018年底以来,小型和中型矿业公司筹集勘查资金的能力一直不如大型矿业公司。2018年11月至2019年2月(探勘公司通常在这段时间向市场筹集未来一年勘查工作的资金)的融资总额为9.571亿美元,而2017年11月至2018年2月的融资总额为39.7亿美元。虽然融资额在年内逐步回升,但2019年筹集的86.1亿美元还是远低于2018年(92亿美元)和2017年(96亿美元)。

As recorded in our monthly Industry Monitor reports, junior and intermediate companies have been less able than the majors to raise funds for exploration since late 2018. Financings from November 2018 to February 2019 — the period when explorers typically tap the market to fund the new year's exploration effort — totaled US$957.1 million, compared with US$3.97 billion from November 2017 to February 2018. While financings recovered through the year, the US$8.61 billion raised during 2019 was well below both 2018 (US$9.2 billion) and 2017 (US$9.6 billion).

 

主要用于勘查目的的资本发行继续呈下降趋势;2019年募集的25.3亿美元远低于2018年和2017年分别募集的29.1亿美元和33.9亿美元。小型矿业公司板块的预算同比减少了10%,反映了为勘查筹集资金的困难。由于大型矿业公司多数维持其预算分配比例,本行业越来越依赖通过收入来为勘查提供资金。

Capital offerings targeted primarily for exploration purposes continued to trend downward; the US$2.53 billion raised in 2019 was much lower than the US$2.91 billion and US$3.39 billion raised in 2018 and 2017 respectively. The difficulty in raising funds for exploration is reflected in the junior sector decreasing their budgets by 10% year over year. As the major companies mostly

maintained their allocations, the industry has become increasingly dependent on revenues to fund exploration.


04
行业集中在近矿勘查

Industry focusing on near- mine exploration

 

标普全球的研究表明,采矿业将越来越多的勘查支出用于后期阶段的项目和矿山。在市场低迷时期,这种远离草型探大值速7%,达到35.7亿美元。矿区勘查在全球预算分配中所占份额最大,达38.5%,这是有纪录以来矿区预算分配首次超过后期和草根项目支出,后者分别同比下降14%和1%。

This trend accelerated in 2019, with planned spending at and near mines up 7% to US$3.57 billion. Minesite exploration accounted for the largest share of global allocations at 38.5%, the first time on record that minesite allocations have exceeded.

Both late-stage and grassroots spending, which were down 14% and 1% respectively year over year.

 

这种回避早期勘查的转变现已影响到报告资源的新矿床的数量。从2015年到2019年,平均每年只有54个初始资源,而从2010年到2014年,平均每年则有94个。初始资源规模也呈下降趋势;自2015年以来报告的176个黄金初始资源平均储量为55.9万盎司,而2010年至2014年报告的271个资源平均储量为83.5万盎司。

This shift away from early-stage exploration is already impacting the number of new deposits reporting resources. There has been an average of only 54 initial resources per year from 2015 to 2019, compared with 94 per year from 2010 to 2014. The size of the initial resources is also on a downward trend; the 176 gold initial resources reported since 2015 have an average endowment of 559,037 ounces, whereas the 271 resources reported from 2010 to 2014 average 835,000 ounces.

从铜(含铜量最小50万吨)和黄金(含金量最小200万盎司)的重大发现来看,本行业在生成和发现导向性的勘查投资不足就更为明显。在过去的十年里,这两种商品的发现率都已大幅下降。

The industry's underinvestment in generative and discovery-oriented exploration is even more obvious when looking at major discoveries of copper (minimum 500,000 tonnes of contained copper) and gold (minimum 2 million ounces of contained gold). For both commodities, discovery rates have fallen dramatically over the past decade.

 

缺少新的优质矿床不会对行业产生立竿见影的影响。这是一个10到15年的长期问题,过去十年发现的矿床需要投入生产,才能减缓现存矿山的衰竭。

This lack of new quality deposits will not have an immediate impact on the industry. This is a longer-term concern, in the 10-15 year time frame, when deposits discovered over the past decade would need to be entering production to mitigate declines at existing mines.


05
7个地区中只有3个增加预算

Allocations rise in just 3 of 7 regions

随着全球勘查的放缓,2019年报告的7个区域中只有3个增加了预算分配,而2018年则有6个地区增长。澳大利亚项目的预算增长最多,几乎增加了2亿美元,增幅为15%,其次是美国,增长9300万美元,增幅为11%。太平洋/东南亚地区是2018年唯一预算同比下降的地区,在2019年略增1580万美元,相当于5%。

With the slowdown in global exploration, only three of the seven CES regions had higher allocations in 2019, compared with six regional increases in 2018. Budgets for Australian projects increased the most, by almost US$200 million or 15%, followed by the United States with an increase of US$93 million or 11%. The Pacific/Southeast Asia region — the only region with a lower budget year over year in 2018 — saw a modest increase in 2019, up US$15.8 million or 5%.

 

尽管拉丁美洲的预算减少4%以上,在全球预算份额连续第二次下降,从2017年近30%的峰值下降到28%,但仍然是世界最大的勘查地区。

Latin America remained the world's top region for exploration despite a budget decline of more than 4% and a second consecutive decline in global budget share, to 28% from a peak of almost 30% in 2017.

该地区预算几乎完全被六个国家瓜分。智利占该地区总量的四分之一,加上秘鲁、墨西哥、巴西、阿根廷和厄瓜多尔,其总和约占拉美总量的90%。该地区预算减少主要由于黄金预算下降14%,大部分是由于大型和中型矿业公司的预算分配减少所致。铜矿预算分配增加了11%,所有公司类型都增加了分配。

Six countries accounted for virtually all of the region's budget. Chile, with one-quarter of the region's total, combined with Peru, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina and Ecuador to account for nearly 90% of the Latin American total. Most of the decrease was due to a 14% drop in the region's gold budgets, largely resulting from lower allocations by major and intermediate companies. Copper allocations were up by 11%, with increases by all company types.

 

澳大利亚从2018年的第四位跃升至2019年的第二位,它在上世纪90年代末和21世纪初就曾居第二。铜矿和黄金的预算有所增加,大型矿业公司在该地区加大了计划力度。西澳仍是首选,占该地区总量63%,较2018年增长了15%。

Australia jumped from fourth place in 2018 to second place in 2019, a position it last held in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Budgets for copper and gold were up, with the majors ramping up their programs in the region. Western Australia remained the top destination at 63% of region's total, with a 15% dollar increase over 2018.

世界其他地区包括欧洲和亚洲大陆,由于黄金预算分配减少1.39亿美元,遭遇最大的同比降幅。铜、铂族金属(PGM)、钻石和其他目标的预算也大幅减少。俄罗斯和中国仍然是勘查的首选国家,合计占总预算的56%。

The Rest of World region, which comprises Europe and mainland Asia, experienced the largest decline year over year, due to a US$139 million drop in gold allocations. Substantial reductions in budgets for copper, platinum group metals, or PGM, diamonds and other targets also contributed to the decline. Russia and China remained the top countries for exploration, accounting for a combined 56% of the total budget.

 

加拿大在地区排名中下滑一位至第四位,2019年预算同比减少1.34亿美元(9%)。小型公司的降幅最大,同比削减预算9500万美元,降幅为12%;大型公司则减少了2200万美元,降幅为4%。按商品

钯粉回收

计算,预算骤降的主要原因是黄金勘查减少了近2亿美元(21%),PGM和锌铅合计减少4000万美元。

Canada slid one spot to the fourth position in regional ranking, with a budget decrease of 9% or US$134 million year over year in 2019. Juniors contributed the most to the decline, with a budget cut of US$95 m

金盐回收

illion, or 12%, year over year, while majors were down US$22 million, or 4%. By commodity, the plunge was driven primarily by the nearly US$200 million, or 21%, decrease in gold exploration, along with an aggregate US$40 million decline for PGM and zinc-lead.

非洲上一次在2012年排名第二之后,连续第二年位居全球第五。该地区2019年预算减少12%的主要原因是黄金和铜的预算分配减少了近1.5亿美元。小型勘查公司的预算同比减少最多,黄金和铜分别减少了25%和57%。尽管计划支出下降了35%,刚果民主共和国仍是非洲最大的勘查目的国,自2008年以来一直保持首位。

Africa was fifth globally for a second consecutive year, after ranking second as recently as 2012. The region's 12% budget decline in 2019 was mostly due to a nearly US$150 million drop in allocations for gold and copper. Junior explorers cut their budgets the most year over year, by 25% for gold and 57% for copper. Despite a 35% drop in planned spending, Democratic Republic of Congo was the top African country for exploration, a position it has held since 2008.

 

自2017年全球勘查预算反弹以来,由于美国现政府放松联邦矿产资源勘查和开发的某些监管要求,在此推动之下,美国表现优于大多数其他地区。

2019年,在全球总预算下降4%的背景下,美国预算分配额增加了11%,即9300万美元。其中主要来自铜矿分配激增80%,银等其他商品的分配也增长44%。美国黄金分配量同比下降22%,几乎与铜持平,约为3.7亿美元。尽管计划支出减少6%,内华达州仍然在美国各州中排名在首位。

Since the recovery of global exploration budgets in 2017, the United States has outperformed most of its regional peers, aided by the current government's easing of certain regulatory requirements for the exploration and development of federal mineral resources. In 2019, U.S. allocations rose by 11%, or US$93 million, compared with a 4% decline in the overall global budget. The increase was fueled mostly by an 80% surge in copper allocations and a 44% increase in budgets for other commodities like silver. U.S. gold allocations fell by 22% year over year and were almost equal with copper at around US$370 million. Despite a 6% decline in planned spending, Nevada remained first among the U.S. states.

 

太平洋/东南亚地区在2018年是唯一预算减少的地区,其分配额在2019年同比增长5%,即1580万美元。铜以12%的涨幅成为主要驱动因素,而黄金则增加近5%。

After being the only region with a lower budget in 2018, Pacific/Southeast Asia's allocations increased by 5%, or US$15.8 million, year over year in 2019. Copper was the principal driver with a 12% increase, while gold was up almost 5%.


06
钻探活动稳健

Drilling activity stays robust

融资难是2019年全球勘查预算下降的因素之一,而在2018年末和2019年初的融资困难条件则对2019年完成的钻探量产生了明确的影响。据勘查公司报告,2019年共有1093个项目完成3.9万个钻孔,较2018年1262个项目的4.9万个钻孔分别下降21%和13%。2018年末至2019年初的融资困境对2019年上半年的钻探活动影响最大,当时报告的钻井孔数为1.8万个,而下半年为2.1万个,增幅为13%。尽管此后的融资条件有所改善(对2020年的乐观迹象),但钻探结果尚未反映出资金增加的好处。

Having contributed to the fall in 2019 global exploration budgets, the difficult financing conditions of late 2018 and early 2019 had a definite impact on the amount of drilling conducted in 2019. Explorers reported a total of 38,958 drillholes at 1,093 projects in 2019, down 21% and 13% respectively from the 49,061 drillholes at 1,262 projects in 2018. The late-2018 to early-2019 financing struggles had their greatest impact on drilling activity in the first half of 2019, when there were 18,265 holes reported compared with 20,723 holes in the second half — a 13% increase. While financing activity has since improved — an optimistic sign for 2020 — the benefits of the increased funding have not yet manifested in drill results.

 

黄金仍然是2019年的首要目标,在全球钻孔的占比从2018年的58%增加到63%。这是自2016以来的最高水平,当年英国的脱欧投票和美国大选推高了黄金价格。就项目数量而言,黄金钻探活动同比减少9%,从2018年的707个项目降至641个项目。报告的钻孔总数同比减少6730个,降幅更为明显。虽然黄金钻探回落部分是由于筹资压力,但这也反映了探勘公司将注意力从高级阶段的晚期项目(需要更多钻探来圈定矿床)转移到更多新潜在项目的基础勘查(确定目标所需的钻孔数量更少)。2019年,报告钻探黄金的草根项目数量同比增加,从290个增至299个,为2012年以来的最高水平。

Gold continued to be the top target in 2019, increasing its share of global drillholes to 63% from 58% in 2018. This is the highest level since 2016, when gold prices were pushed up by the U.K.'s Brexit vote and the U.S. election. Drilling activity for gold fell 9% year over year in terms of the number of projects, to 641 projects from 707 in 2018. The drop was even more pronounced in the total number of holes reported, which fell by 6,730 year over year.

While some of the cutback in gold drilling was due to fundraising pressures, it also reflected a shift in explorers' focus from advanced, late-stage projects — which require more drilling to delineate and define a deposit — to more grassroots prospects, which require fewer holes to identify a target. The number of grassroots projects reporting drilling for gold increased year over year in 2019, to 299 from 290, the highest level of grassroots gold drilling since 2012.

 

基本金属/其他金属(合并了工业基本金属、银和铂族金属/PGM)报告的钻探结果降幅与黄金相比较为均匀,钻孔总数同比减少19%,而项目数量减少15%。受美中贸易战影响,2019年基本金属价格表现不佳。钻探方面,锌铅矿和镍矿受影响最大,项目数量分别下降19%和32%。铜价在2019年较为稳定,项目数量仅下降6%,而报告钻孔数量还增加了9%。

2019年重大钻探成果(满足预计品位区间截止值)也同样减少,获得重大见矿段的钻孔总数同比减少21%。这一下降主要来自基本/其他金属,该类别减少20%,而黄金则温和减少9%。

Declines in reported drill results for base/ other metals — which combines the industrial base metals with silver and platinum group metals, or PGM — were more uniform than for gold, with total drillholes declining 19% year over year and the number of projects falling by 15%. Base metals prices underperformed in 2019, hampered by the U.S.-China trade war.

In terms of drilling, zinc-lead and nickel were the most affected, with the numbers of projects falling by 19% and 32% respectively. Copper, with a comparatively more stable price in 2019, declined only 6% in the number of projects and actually had a 9% increase in the number of holes reported. while gold declined a more modest 9%.

除黄金早期钻探有所增加以外,铜的草根钻探也大幅增加,报告项目数量增加了21%。获得重大结果的项目数量增加更多,同比上升30%。获得重大结果的早期黄金钻探项目减少4%。2019年正在钻探的后期项目和矿区项目数量都有所下降,几乎涉及所有商品。

In addition to the increase in early-stage drilling for gold, grassroots drilling for copper jumped notably with a 21% increase in the number of projects reporting. Those with significant results increased even further, up by 30% year over year. Significant results from projects conducting early-stage drilling for gold slipped by 4%. The numbers of late-stage and minesite projects undergoing drilling fell across nearly all commodities in 2019.

 

大多数地区的钻探活动都有所减少。与2018年一样,澳大利亚2019年仍是报告项目最多的国家,并拉开了与第二名加拿大的差距,澳大利亚报告项目314个,而加拿大为298个。两国的报告项目数量分别同比减少了7%和11%。澳大利亚在钻孔总数方面继续遥遥领先,但钻孔总数比加拿大的下降幅度更大,澳大利亚减少19%,而加拿大减少15%。拉丁美洲、非洲和太平洋(不包括澳大利亚)的钻探活动报告项目数量分别下降了24%、17%和8%,进一步凸显了行业正向更熟悉、更稳定的本土管辖区转移。

Drilling activity fell across most jurisdictions. Australia was home to the most projects reporting in 2019, as it was in 2018, and its lead widened over second-place Canada, with 314 projects reporting compared with 298 in Canada. Projects reporting in the two countries declined by 7% and 11% respectively year over year. Australia continued to lead by a wide margin in total number of holes drilled, although the total declined more year over year than it did in Canada, falling by 19% compared with 15% for Canada. Further highlighting an industry shift to familiar, stable home jurisdictions, drilling activity in Latin America, Africa and the Pacific (not including Australia) fell by 24%, 17% and 8% respectively in number of projects reporting.

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